CERC news

2024 ADMS User Group Meetings: 4-5 December 2024, Cambridge

Mon, 18 Mar 2024 00:00:00 GMT

The 2024 ADMS User Group Meetings will be held at the Møller Institute, Churchill College, Cambridge, on the following dates:

ADMS 6, Wednesday 4 December
ADMS-Urban and ADMS-Roads, Thursday 5 December

The annual ADMS User Group Meetings are a great opportunity to hear the latest ADMS model news and advice from CERC consultants and model developers, to hear talks by model users about their own applications of the software, and to network with other model users. Tickets will be available to book soon.

EFT 12 update for ADMS-Roads, ADMS-Urban and ADMS-Airport

Fri, 01 Mar 2024 00:00:00 GMT

The UK Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs and the Devolved Administrations have released version 12 of the Emissions Factors Toolkit (EFT). Details of the changes for this version are given in the EFT user guide.

We have processed the new EFT and published an update for ADMS-Roads, ADMS-Urban and ADMS-Airport version 5 on the Other downloads page of our User Area. If you are registered, you can go straight to the download folder. If you are not registered, follow the instructions on the User Area main page.

DHAQ-SEA - Demonstration of High-resolution Air Quality forecasting in South East Asia

Thu, 29 Feb 2024 00:00:00 GMT

There is an increased risk of certain health conditions where ambient air pollution levels are high. CERC are working on a feasibility study for high-resolution (street-scale) air quality forecasting in South East Asia. ASEAN countries can be subject to poor air quality as a consequence of transboundary pollution as well as local pollutant sources. Alerting the public prior to air pollution episodes allows vulnerable and other individuals to take action to reduce the health impacts of poor air quality. The MAQS coupled system is being used to ensure that both regional (using data from CAMS) and local (modelled using ADMS-Urban) contributions to pollution are accounted for.

CERC is working closely with project partners from the Institute for Environment and Resources, Vietnam National University, Ho Chi Minh City and the Department of Earth Sciences and Environment, Faculty of Science and Technology, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia. The project will generate high resolution pollution maps corresponding to air pollution episodes for two distinct domains, one in Malaysia and one covering parts of southern Vietnam and Cambodia. Key ASEAN stakeholders will be invited to an online workshop to discuss project outcomes during May 2024.

This project will demonstrate that regional to-local-scale air quality forecasting systems could be implemented throughout ASEAN because: the modelling system relies primarily on open data sources; MAQS allows both local and regional contributions to ambient pollution to be accounted for; and CERC are highly experienced in the provision of air quality forecasting services.

The study has received Official Development Assistance (ODA) funding from the UK government Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (FCDO) under the Research and Innovation for Development in ASEAN (RIDA) programme. The project focus is on the RIDA priority area 'Health', addressing Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 3 'Ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages.'

Exploring air quality model evaluation techniques

Tue, 30 Jan 2024 00:00:00 GMT

Comparisons of modelled and measured data are a key part of evaluating model performance. CERC's latest project for the Atmospheric Dispersion Modelling Liaison Committee (ADMLC) is investigating approaches to air quality model evaluation. A literature review is identifying established and emerging model evaluation techniques and performance metrics for a variety of model types and applications. Case studies will then be used to test the different performance metrics individually and in combination. The project aims to develop best practice recommendations for evaluating a broad range of model applications, reporting late in 2024.

CERC have extensive experience of model evaluation through assessments of the ADMS family of models and inter-comparisons with other models. Jenny Stocker, CERC's Associate Director (Research) has been a long-standing participant in the Forum for Air Quality Modelling (FAIRMODE) initiative which has developed model quality and model performance indicators. CERC have developed and made public the 'Model Evaluation Toolkit' which allows user-friendly access to a broad selection of graphical and statistical model evaluation analyses. The Model Evaluation Toolkit was originally developed under the FP7 PASODOBLE project and recently extended under the SPF Clean Air Programme MAQS-Health project. It makes use of Openair functions and can additionally generate the statistics and graphics recommended by FAIRMODE. The image shows polar plots of the measured and modelled variation of hourly average NO_x concentrations (units ppb) with wind speed and direction at the Schildhornstrasse site in Berlin produced using the Model Evaluation Toolkit, as published in Seaton et al. (2022).

Published recommendations for use of NWP meteorological data in dispersion modelling

Wed, 24 Jan 2024 00:00:00 GMT

CERC's investigation of the impacts of using modelled (NWP) meteorological data on dispersion modelling outcomes has now been published by the Atmospheric Dispersion Modelling Liaison Committee (ADMLC). The project was commissioned to examine the effects of NWP model grid resolution on dispersion modelling, in both regulatory and emergency planning contexts, and to make recommendations for the use of NWP data in dispersion modelling.

The report begins with an evaluation of NWP outputs in comparison with meteorological observations at eight UK sites (shown on the map). This is followed by a comparison of ADMS and AERMOD dispersion outcomes for idealised sources at four locations with observed and modelled meteorological data. The report also includes an investigation of the interaction between fine-scale NWP data and local flowfield modelling using the FLOWSTAR model for flow over complex terrain in ADMS. Finally, there are results from the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) investigation of the effects of NWP grid resolution on the outcomes of probabilistic accident consequence modelling with the PACE model.

Interim results from the project were presented at CERC's ADMS User Group Meetings in 2022 and 2023; the presentations are available from the User Area. Christina Hood from CERC will also present the sensitivity of ADMS and AERMOD dispersion outputs to varying input meteorological data at the international conference on Harmonisation within Atmospheric Dispersion Modelling for Regulatory Purposes (Harmo) in June 2024.

Street-scale pollution maps for Ireland now available

Tue, 19 Dec 2023 00:00:00 GMT

Results from CERC's modelling of street-scale air pollution in Ireland have been published as part of the Irish Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) report 'Air quality in Ireland 2022'. The full CERC report with high-resolution maps for a wider range of regulated air pollutants is also available. The predicted concentrations were evaluated with measured concentrations with generally good performance for both years at all site types, meeting the FAIRMODE model quality objectives. Modelled concentrations were compared to current Irish air quality standards air quality standards, with exceedances generally associated with the major road network. Most of Ireland meets the World Health Organisation (WHO) guideline for annual average NO₂ concentrations, with exceedences in urban areas, while a substantial proportion of Ireland does not meet the lowest guideline for annual average PM_2.5 concentrations.

CERC were commissioned by the Irish EPA to provide street-scale modelling of Ireland for 2018 and 2019. This used the Multi-model Air Quality System (MAQS) coupled system (developed by CERC) to link regional scale hourly pollution predictions from the EMEP model with local ADMS-Urban modelling. The UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (UK CEH) ran the WRF mesoscale meteorological model and EMEP chemical transport model with 1 km horizontal grid resolution over Ireland. CERC carried out detailed road traffic emissions calculations in EMIT based on traffic flow data supplied by the National Transport Authority (NTA) and Transport Infrastructure Ireland (TII). Gridded emissions from non-traffic sources were obtained from the MapEire inventory.

Street canyon effects on dispersion were included in major urban areas. Three major road tunnels were also included in the modelling using the ADMS-Urban tunnels module, with high concentrations noticeable around the portals of the Dublin Port tunnel. The model output is at hourly temporal resolution and irregular spatial resolution. The MAQS PostProcessor utility was used to calculate annual average and high percentile hourly concentrations on regular grids for plotting, at 20 m resolution for whole country maps and 5 m resolution for individual cities.

The 2019 mapped concentrations were uploaded to the recent FAIRMODE composite mapping exercise, which combines and assesses modelling results for different parts of Europe. Preliminary results from this exercise were presented in October 2023, with CERC's modelling results showing good performance in the 'high resolution, unassimilated' category. Presentations describing the Irish emissions inventory development and coupled system modelling were given by CERC at the 2023 ADMS-Urban and ADMS-Roads User Group Meeting.

Review of methods for monitoring and modelling air quality

Mon, 18 Dec 2023 00:00:00 GMT

CERC recently contributed modelling expertise to a comprehensive Environment Agency (EA) report that reviewed methods for air quality monitoring and modelling, and their integration. The report examines both well-established techniques already employed by the EA, such as Gaussian plume dispersion for air quality modelling, and emerging technologies, such as data assimilation and machine learning for integration. Factors such as spatial-temporal resolution, cost considerations, the maturity of the technique, and requisite user expertise are evaluated. The report provides practical recommendations on the suitability of different air quality assessment techniques for EA requirements, including their regulatory responsibilities.

The report is a significant collaborative effort engaging experts across governmental, industrial and academic sectors, with specialist knowledge in emission measurements, air quality measurements, and modelling – many thanks to AQC, Aether and all involved! It offers valuable insight for those interested in the rapidly evolving landscape of air quality techniques.

2023 ADMS User Group Meetings – presentations are available to download

Tue, 12 Dec 2023 00:00:00 GMT

Following this year’s ADMS User Group Meetings, which took place in York on 29-30 November, electronic copies of the presentations are now available to download from the CERC website User Area. Model users with a valid support contract, including all annual licence holders, are entitled to register for password-protected access to the User Area. To register, or to be reminded of your password, click here.

Estimating emissions from concentration measurements: inverse dispersion modelling report published

Wed, 06 Dec 2023 00:00:00 GMT

The Environment Agency recently commissioned CERC and AQC to investigate inverse dispersion modelling methods which could be applied to fugitive (uncontrolled) sources of methane. Inverse dispersion modelling methods allow the estimation of unknown emission rates from concentration measurements. Improving estimates of methane emissions from sources such as landfill sites is important for quantifying greenhouse gas impacts.

The report from this project has now been published online. It includes: a literature review of different inverse dispersion modelling methods; an assessment of the applicability of inverse dispersion modelling methods to different EA-regulated facilities; a study testing four inverse dispersion modelling methods with measurements from three landfill sites; and recommendations for future use of inverse dispersion modelling.

CERC have previously developed and implemented an inverse dispersion modelling approach for improving estimates of urban emissions. For this project we developed a new 'modified Bayesian' inverse modelling technique, due to the short timescale of the plume transect measurements. Measurements at 1 second intervals capture the instantaneous rather than ensemble plume. The concentration fluctuations module in ADMS was used to represent the short-term distribution of concentrations, with inverse modelling applied to the peak modelled and measured concentrations only.

The image shows an example of transect measurements of acetylene (C2H2) tracer gas. The 1 second measured data displays a narrow peak, while standard modelling ('modelled') predicts a wider plume with a lower peak concentration. The maximum model prediction of 1 second concentrations from the fluctuations module ('modelled fluctuations maximum', also showing standard deviation error bars) gives good agreement with the peak measurement. Methane measurements from the same transect were used in the inverse modelling study.

PhD Opportunity to Explore the Pollution-Climate-Health Dilemma

Tue, 05 Dec 2023 00:00:00 GMT

CERC is a partner for a PhD studentship harnessing data and air pollution modelling to examine the complex interactions between pollution, climate, and health. The PhD project will delve into the issue of why the public is perceiving a decline in their health and wellbeing due to exposure to air pollutants when, in reality, anthropogenic air pollution emissions have significantly decreased over the last 30 years. One potential factor contributing to this dilemma could be the influence of climate change and the evolving nature of emissions.

The studentship will be awarded by Envision, a doctoral training program which fosters collaboration between researchers, industry partners and NGOs to cultivate a new generation of exceptional environmental scientists. The selected student will benefit from supervision of a team of interdisciplinary experts throughout the PhD journey, including an NHS clinician, and receive training from CERC and RDScientific.

If this rewarding and challenging project appeals to you please consider applying here. Or for further details please contact Professor Sarah Metcalfe, sarah.metcalfe@nottingham.ac.uk or Professor Duncan Whyatt, d.whyatt@lancaster.ac.uk.

Exploring Particulate Deposition Modelling at the ADMLC Seminar

Fri, 17 Nov 2023 00:00:00 GMT

CERC’s director, Dr David Carruthers, shared his insights into particulate deposition modelling using ADMS at the recent seminar organised by the Atmospheric Dispersion Modelling Liaison Committee (ADMLC) on dry deposition of reactive chemicals. David’s presentation explored the complexities of capturing the impact of spatial and temporal variation on modelled deposition, using a copper deposition dataset in the West Midlands as an example. Deposition is a critical topic that spans the environmental, defence and industrial safety sectors. This seminar brought together experts from these fields to collaborate, share knowledge and discuss approaches to modelling and measuring deposition. Access all the presentations from the day here.

This discussion will be continued in the forthcoming ADMS User Group Meeting, with Dr Victoria Hamilton giving a presentation that focuses on practical deposition model applications. This annual face-to-face meeting provides a great opportunity to learn more about the latest ADMS model advances and provides opportunities to network with other experts in the field – we hope to see you there!

CERC sponsor Cambridge Climate and Sustainability Forum (CCSF) event

Tue, 17 Oct 2023 00:00:00 GMT

CERC are proud to be the main sponsor for the 2023 Cambridge Climate and Sustainability Forum (CCSF). This was a University of Cambridge student event organised by Cambridge Hub and also sponsored by Cambridge Zero. This year a one-day forum on Climate Change was held on Sunday 15^th October at the Cambridge Union, with over 190 people attending. Topics covered a wide range from Sustainable Growth/degrowth, Activism, Climate Politics and Emerging Technologies. There were break out periods for group discussions, Q&A sessions, as well as time at the end of the day for further dialogue and exchange of ideas. The day was a huge success.

CERC sponsor & present at Routes to Clean Air 2023

Tue, 17 Oct 2023 00:00:00 GMT

CERC are once again proud to have sponsored the Institute of Air Quality Management's (IAQM) Routes to Clean Air 2023 conference, held in Manchester on the 10^th and 11^th of October 2023.

The Routes to Clean Air conferences are annual events, providing a valuable opportunity for professionals in air quality and related fields to share their experiences and innovations for improving air quality. This year featured an excellent selection of talks, with key themes including indoor air quality, and the impacts of Net Zero on air quality. The latter included Dr Catheryn Price from CERC presenting a talk entitled 'Dispersion modelling considerations for air quality and Net Zero'.

Speaker details and the conference programme can be found on the IAQM website here, and the slides of the presentations will also be available soon.

IAQM Webinar on Air Quality Futures: Environment Agency horizon scanning

Fri, 13 Oct 2023 00:00:00 GMT

CERC were recently commissioned by the Environment Agency (EA) to contribute to their ongoing horizon scanning programme, with a focus on the air pollution sources and situations that the EA is responsible for. Two projects were commissioned as part of the programme.

In one project, CERC worked with Air Quality Consultants to assess the developing approaches and technologies around air quality modelling and monitoring, and prospects for integrating these methods for air quality assessment. Specific methods covered include coupled modelling systems, machine learning and low-cost sensor networks. The other project, led by Aether, looked at the drivers and changes likely to impact on the EA's work over the coming decades. Both projects involved discussions with the EA and experts in the field to identify priority topics.

The Institute of Air Quality Management (IAQM) are hosting a webinar 'Air Quality Futures: Environment Agency horizon scanning' to launch the outcomes of these two projects. The webinar is free to attend and will take place between 12:15 and 13:15 next Tuesday (17^th October). Register here for free and come along!

Post-doctoral opportunities as part of a new Wellcome Trust funded health-centred West Midlands study

Fri, 25 Aug 2023 00:00:00 GMT

CERC are pleased to be collaborating with a multi-disciplined team on a new Wellcome Trust funded, West Midlands based project: “A Health-centred Systems Approach towards Net-Zero: Transforming regional climate mitigation policies”. The overall aim of WM-Net Zero is to transform regional Net-Zero policy solutions by adopting a health-centred systems approach.

WM-Net Zero brings together scientists from a range of disciplines (including social science, climate, air quality, data, health and economics) from the Universities of Birmingham, Surrey, and York, and stakeholders from West Midlands Combined Authority, Defra, Birmingham City Council, Clean Air Fund, Sandwell Metropolitan Borough Council, Coventry City Council, Solihull Council and WSP in the UK to develop new tools and science understanding.

This work builds on CERC’s previous collaborations with the University of Birmingham, for example the successful West Midlands Air Quality Improvement Programme (WM-Air). Dr Jian Zhong, from the School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, has published papers demonstrating how ADMS-Urban can be used to model baseline air quality over a large metropolitan domain and, of particular relevance to this new project, an investigation into impacts of net zero policies on air quality.

The WM-Net Zero team are currently recruiting for a research fellow (deadline 29th August) and an impact fellow (deadline 30th August).

About the image: This shows the reduction in annual mean NO2 (µg.m^-3) for (a) 2030 Net Zero Scenario (NZS) and (b) 2030 Electric Vehicles (EV) (transport decarbonisation) scenario relative to 2030 Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario; and percentage change for (c) 2030 NZS and (d) 2030 EV scenario relative to 2030 BAU scenario.