ADMS-Forecast

Air quality forecasting system

What is ADMS-Forecast?

ADMS-Forecast provides very high resolution air quality forecasts on the world-wide web.

The forecasting system combines local data on traffic patterns, weather forecasts and regional forecasts of atmospheric composition. These data are input to the ADMS-Urban pollution dispersion modelling system, which gives concentrations at a high degree of spatial resolution across a city.

Who uses ADMS-Forecast?

ADMS-Forecast is used by local authorities to provide forecasts of air quality for the public. These forecasts are disseminated as colour pollution maps, text and number summaries, through smartphone apps, Twitter and Facebook, and by alerts by SMS/text message, voicemail, and e-mail.

In the UK we also provide health forecasts, such as cold weather alerts, heatwave alerts and UV and pollen forecasts.

ADMS-Forecast systems are currently deployed in the United Kingdom (London), Latvia (Riga), Hungary (Budapest), Spain (Barcelona) and China (Beijing).

Why use ADMS-Forecast?

ADMS-Forecast offers a unique ability to provide information about future air pollution several days in advance, empowering the public to take control of their health. Individuals with conditions like asthma or COPD, who may be at risk during pollution episodes, can plan to reduce physical exertion or outdoor activity.

Input data

The base pollution data used in the system are collated from national emissions records and the local inventories. Figures for all the major pollutants are calculated by looking at vehicle flows on major roads, outputs from industry, releases from residential and commercial areas and pollution that drift over the city of interest.

In order to produce air quality forecasts these emissions are modelled in conjunction with predicted levels of key meteorological parameters—wind speed and directions, temperature and cloud cover. The ADMS-Forecast system is driven by boundary conditions from mesoscale models. It has been linked to different regional services for different locations. The Prev'Air service uses CHIMERE to create free European forecasts. The EU FP7 Project MACC provides a global forecast product.

ADMS-Urban

ADMS-Urban is an air quality management system for urban planning and air quality reviews, developed by CERC. It is in use in most of the urban areas of the United Kingdom, and its outputs have been extensively validated in a number of studies published in the scientific literature.

In the United Kingdom and around the world it has been used successfully and validated in a variety of situations where different sources types are important (for example industrial, traffic and heating sources) and where different factors such as complex topography affect dispersion. Studies carried out with ADMS-Urban include air quality management planning in London and Beijing; decision-making and air quality forecasting in Budapest, Hungary; air quality assessment in Strasbourg, France; modelling of traffic sources in California, U.S.A.; modelling of domestic coal burning emissions in Belfast, Northern Ireland.

Forecasts and dissemination

One key advantage we offer is the ability to generate high resolution maps. These can be in the form of colour-coded air quality contours overlaid on a map of the area, or as labels over specific streets, suburbs or towns. Such maps can be formatted to suit a wide variety of media—including publication on the web.

The system may also be equipped with air quality alerts sent by SMS/text message, voicemail, and e-mail or through Twitter and Facebook. Users may register online to receive such alerts or by texting a dedicated short-code number. The forecasts can also be made available throughsmartphone applications or in PDF bulletins.